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Look at the source, NBC polled 1000 people ("registered voters") with a 3.1% margin of error. This is their own numbers, we have no clue how many actually answered, how the polling was made, who was selected, at what time of day people were polled (mid day unemployed are more likely to answer than workers if a phone poll for instance).

Polls are never reliable, and when they appears to be, it's an illusion, like the blind chicken which sometimes find the corn.