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honestly, after some studies, i think the situation is as following:

there's a buncha tribes all called "israelites", and they are indeed God's people, one way or another.

at some point, judeans split off from the "israelite" label, but still sorta count. judeans are immediately wicked as hell and disappoint God a lot.

at the same time, israelites themselves disappoint God a lot. israelites are scattered around, possibly mixing with other middle easterners or europeans. they're scattered really good, we have no idea where they went or if they're us. there's no "israelites" today.

judeans remain a little longer, then are invaded by Rome and get scattered too. they turn to matrilineality to remember who they are as they mix with a ton of different people. somehow, they stay cohesive enough to work their way up to a conspiracy where they get to own a country called "israel" in the modern day.

now, from where we're standing, it is disingenuous to even mention them and God in the same sentence unless it's to explain how much He probably hates them. but, objectively speaking, it seems the Old Testament was partially about them. i suppose you could say they are God's chosen, in the sense that they were chosen to become wicked beyond belief so as to test the rest of the world later.