Churchill
(media.scored.co)
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Japan always tended to drag Germany down, because Japan had *completely* different interests that had nothing to do with the affairs of Germany, or Italy for that matter actually. They did whatever the fuck they wanted to do.
Hitler had arguably 2 powerful east Asian allies in the early 30s. Both Japan and China were allies of hitler, but China was a bigger ally that was being supplied with large amounts German gear and German training (hitler was a sinophile). Then Japan invades China, which was not really necessary to a single thing hitler ever wanted to do, and hitler is pretty much forced into a quandary. So he supports japan, because Japan is a bit better than China.
What would have, arguably, changed the war's outcome more than anything else is a Japan that moves more in line with the broader axis as opposed to independently. The axis was anti communist, Chiang kai shek was too, and so were the Japanese. A Japan focused more on "realpolitik" would have likely allied with chiang kai shek and, furthermore, this would have allowed Germany to continue funneling money into china's military to the point that a combined east Asian army would have been a legitimate threat to the soviets (which the Japanese were unable to do in any legitimate capacity)
Hitler did most things he could have done correctly. Japan did everything for its own gain, because they did not really care about the axis. China was a better true ally of Germany than Japan was.
Of course, this write up is kind of glazing over the fact that chiang kai shek had his own very major issues as both a political leader and a general that caused him to be outmaneuvered by Mao quite literally every single fucking time. And, well, other issues that caused Mao to even be in the CCP in the first place (he was KMT first). In any case, the lack of a sino japanese war would have prevented a lot of these issues from arising to begin with.
Furthermore, I consider that Israel must be destroyed